The Future of Cuba, the New Game

Dominoes is perhaps the most favorite game of Cubans.  A visit to any town or city in Cuba or Little Havana in Miami will allow the visitor to witness the passion of Cubans when they play dominoes.  The Latin American Grammy winning song “Patria y Vida” (Homeland and Life) written in 2021 by artists on and off the island describes Cuba as a game of dominos between two players:  the government which is identified as 59 or the year 1959 and the current generation identified as 22 or the year 2022.  The game is stalemated or blocked (trancado), meaning neither side has a piece that matches another on the board, and neither can play.  The government has lost its legitimacy in the eyes of the current, post-revolutionary generations.  It cannot resolve the economic problems and is unwilling to address the political issues raised by dissidents.  It cannot make a play until a new game is started.  Despite their on-going public protests against the government, the current generation on the island is powerless, weak, divided, and lacks leadership.  It cannot make a play without starting a new game.  There is a stalemate.  The old game is represented by the slogan “Patria o Muerte” (Homeland or Death) whereas the new game is represented by the more hopeful slogan “Patria y Vida.”  Beginning with the nationwide protests of 2021, the slogan “Patria y Vida” can be heard at every public protest against the government across the island.

(It's over) you five nine, me, double twos(It's over) Sixty years of stalemate domino, look(It's over) you five nine, me, double twos(It's over) Sixty years of stalemate domino (1)

The song expresses the hope of the post-revolutionary generations that the stalemated old game will bring about a new game, a new Cuba, one that can feed its people, one that is free.  If, when, and how that new game occurs are the real questions to answer.

            There is a history of new games being created from stalemates in Cuba.  The Spaniards created a new game that lasted almost 400 years.  The United States intervened and created a new game that lasted about 60 years.  Fidel Castro and his revolutionaries intervened to create a new game that was dependent upon the Soviet Union.  With the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, a new game was created.  Raul and Diaz-Canel recognized that the island must be integrated into the global economy and have access to oil.  The new game imitated the Chinese market socialist model with Venezuela stepping into the old shoes of the Soviet Union by providing oil.  The near collapse of Venezuelan oil industry and China’s current unwillingness to completely intervene has brought a stalemate to the current game.  The government cannot respond to the economic crisis and/or possible collapse and is unwilling to address the political issues.  The opposition groups and the post 1959 generation desperately desire a new game but lack the power to start one.  Cuban history indicates that new games often come about when external forces intervene in some manner.  As the stalemate continues, there are only two countries which can play a role in starting a new game, China and/or the United States.  Chinese recognition of the weakness of the Cuban economy and its lack of a strategic or geopolitical commitment to the island, signals that the United States will have the most effect on the new game.  A new game is coming but no one knows when and how.

The constants in Cuban history will continue to influence the new game no matter when and how it comes about.  The country is an island nation with a small local market which must depend on its ability to export products to the global market to be successful in meeting the needs of its people.  It must seek to diversify its economy to allow it to weather economic, social, and political crises.  It must continue to seek foreign investment.  Adequate foreign investment can only come from economically powerful countries.  Cuba has little to no history of stable, non-corrupt democratic institutions.  It faces troubled times ahead no matter how the dominoes fall or how they are played.

I wrote the above in late December 2025...

Postscript (written in late July 2026)

            On January 3, 2026, the Trump administration sent a military force into Venezuela and successfully captured President Nicolas Maduro and made a deal with the ruling party to run the country's oil industry. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban American, indicated that Cuba was next. The new game of dominoes was starting. On January 29, 2026 President Trump signed executive order14380 which stated that the US would place tariffs on all goods coming intto the US from any country that sells or provides oil to Cuba. Since that time only one Russian oil tanker has delivered oil to the island. The island power grid which runs on oil has virtually collapsed making access to clean drinking water, food storarge, transportation, food production, and other basic services almost impossible. Healthcare has collapsed with thousands of children and adults waiting for surgeries that can not be completed. Tourism to the island, the primary industry which earns hard currencies such as dollars and Euros, has almost completely died. The Trump administration under the guidance of Rubio has restricted dollar remittances to the island from Cuban Americans living in the US and placed sanctions on several high ranking government officials, including former President Raul Castro. The overwhelming majority of countries in the world have condemned Trump's actions. The people of Cuba are facing a humanitarian disaster. For a glimpse of the harsh everyday life in Havana under the oil blockade I urge you to read internationally known dissident Yoani Sanchez' daily commentaries (she lives in Havana) that can be found on facebook or at the 14ymedio website.

So what happens from here? It is clear that Rubio and many of the old guard Cubans in Miami want complete regime change. For that to happen I believe there would have to be a US invasion of the island. Given recent events in Iran and the negative reaction by the overwhelming majority of American citizens to that unnecessary war, I don't believe an invastion will happen anytime soon. The other possibility is to make a Trump style deal with Cuba similar to Venezuela. The problem is that Cuba has little to offer the US, except perhaps part of its tourist industry. The tourist industry is controlled primarily by the military and I don't see that being bargained away anytime soon. There is also no doubt that a Trump style deal would not be received well by Rubio and the old guard Cubans in Miami. In the meantime, the people of Cuba continue to suffer unnecessarily... What is next? Vamos a ver...we shall see...

(1) Anamaria Artemisa Sayre, “Explaining ‘Patria y Vida,’ the Song That Defined the Uprising in Cuba, National Public Radio, Alt.Latino, July 21, 2021, found at https://www.npr.org/sections/altlatino/2021/07/19/1017887993/explaining-patria-y-vida-the-cuban-song-defying-an-evil-revolution