A Humanitarian Catastrophe in Cuba?

Since the 1962 the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba and other sanctions have been designed explicitly to bring about the overthrow of the Cuban government.  These policies have failed to bring about regime change and inflicted severe humanitarian costs on average Cubans.  The Trump administration under the guidance of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose parents fled the island in 1956, has tightened the embargo of Cuba and escalated the crisis on the island.  After the January 3 US invasion, the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro, and a coerced deal with the Chavista-run government and the state-run oil company PDVSA, Venezuela is no longer able to ship oil to Cuba.  It has been the primary supplier of oil to the island since 2002.  To meet its energy needs, the island must import about 50% of its oil supply.

After the US action in Venezuela, Rubio immediately warned that Cuba would be next although Trump publicly ruled out direct military intervention on the island.  On January 29 the administration declared a national emergency over what it called an “unusual and extraordinary threat” from Cuba and threatened tariffs on any country that sells oil to the island.  This was viewed primarily as a threat to Mexico who has also been a supplier of oil to the island.  Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has agreed to stop oil shipments but is sending large amounts of aid to the island.  The best estimates are that Cuba could run out of oil in less than a month.  It is also important to note that Cuba is not a security threat to the US, contrary to the assertions of Trump and Rubio.

The oil shortage has created a major humanitarian crisis for average Cubans on the island.  My friends in Havana and Santiago believe the economy could completely collapse.  They told me about the blackouts and the loss of electricity.  They speak of the closing of hospitals, medical clinics, schools, businesses (both state-run and private), local food markets, and food shortages.  Fishermen have no fuel for their boats and are resorting to rowing their boats out to sea.  Trash is building up on the streets of the major cities because garbage trucks lack fuel.  Families are burning wood and coal for cooking.  The tourist industry is suffering tremendously as hotels and bed and breakfasts can no longer guarantee electricity.  Airlines have suspended flights because of a shortage of jet fuel.  The agricultural sector lacks fuel for tractors.

As the crisis worsens, the Cuban government has responded by prioritizing essential services, ramping up solar power generation, cutting mass transport services, and closing schools, universities, and workplaces.  Mexico and Spain has sent humanitarian aid. President Miguel Díaz-Canel has reiterated his willingness to negotiate with the US.  Trump has claimed that talks are underway but there is no evidence that such talks exist as of today.

Where we go from here is the million-dollar question.  The hardline US policy pushed by Rubio will cause nothing but continued misery for the Cuban people.  I don’t see the Diaz-Canel government changing politically as I and others argue they have become even more openly repressive against any opposition since the 2021 nationwide protests.  To borrow a phrase from dissident Yoani Sanchez, the Cuban government has engaged in “repressive impudence.”  The Cuban people lack the means to force any change in the government and many of the leading opposition figures, such as Jose Daniel Ferrer, have left the island.  A humanitarian catastrophe could be in the making.  Is that really what the US wants? Is this really what Cuban-Americans want? Vamos a ver…